The Merseyside Derby: Tighter Than You Think

The Merseyside Derby looks like a mismatch on paper most seasons, but the actual scorelines stay surprisingly tight. Liverpool vs Everton typically delivers 1-0, 2-1, or 1-1 results far more often than form would suggest, which makes it one of the most predictable derby fixtures in the Premier League if you know what to look for.

If you are weighing up your pick on ScoreBadger, this is one of the matches where leaning small actually pays off. Here is why.

A Long History of Close Results

Liverpool and Everton have played each other more times than almost any other pair of English clubs, and the scoreline distribution across that long history skews much tighter than most rivalries. Even when one side has been title-chasing and the other has been mid-table, the derby itself has tended to produce one- or two-goal margins rather than blowouts.

The reason is partly tactical and partly psychological. Everton sides traditionally set up cautiously against Liverpool, sitting deep, narrowing the pitch, and frustrating attacks that would otherwise tear them apart. Liverpool, conscious of the rivalry and the pressure to avoid an upset, often play with more care than they would against weaker opposition. The result is a derby that compresses the gap between the two sides.

Why Scorelines Stay Tight

Several factors combine to keep this fixture low-scoring more often than not:

• Defensive discipline from the away side, particularly Everton at Anfield
• More fouls and stoppages than the league average, which slows the rhythm
• Higher card counts that disrupt attacking patterns
• A pattern of late goals deciding tight games rather than early ones
• Both sides preferring to avoid losing rather than push for a thrashing

This kind of pattern is exactly the territory we cover in why low-scoring games are easier to predict. When two teams' shared incentive is to avoid losing, the goal expectation drops and the scoreline distribution narrows.

Goodison vs Anfield: The Venue Dynamic

Home advantage matters in this fixture, but in different ways at each ground. At Anfield, Liverpool tend to dominate possession and create the better chances, but Everton's deep defending often keeps the score close. At Goodison, the crowd lifts Everton more than at almost any other home fixture, making it a notably tougher trip for Liverpool than the league table would suggest. League-wide home advantage runs at around 45%, and the Merseyside Derby tends to track that closely or slightly above. We cover the wider question in .