The 0-0 is the scoreline nobody wants to watch but every serious predictor needs to understand. It is the single most avoided prediction in most leagues - and that is exactly why it can be so valuable.

Most people skip the goalless draw entirely. They feel it is boring, unlikely, or just a waste of a prediction. But the numbers tell a different story. In the Premier League, 0-0 results happen more often than many popular scorelines people predict every week. If you are ignoring them, you are leaving points on the table. We covered this briefly in our piece on low-scoring games, but today we are going much deeper into when and why goalless draws occur.

How Common Are 0-0 Draws, Really?

Across the last ten completed Premier League seasons, roughly 7-8% of all matches have ended goalless. That works out to around 27-30 matches per season out of 380. It is not a rare event. It happens nearly every other gameweek.

To put that in context, a 0-0 is more common than a 3-1, a 2-2, or a 4-0. Yet when you look at what people actually predict, those flashier scorelines get chosen far more often. If you have read our breakdown of the most common Premier League scores, you will know that 1-0, 1-1, and 2-1 top the list. The 0-0 sits comfortably in the top ten.

The key insight is that 0-0 results are undervalued by predictors relative to how often they actually happen. That gap between perception and reality is where you find an edge.

Which Fixtures Produce the Most Goalless Draws?

Not all matches carry the same 0-0 probability. Some fixture types are far more likely to end goalless than others. Here is what the data shows:

Newly Promoted Teams at Home

When a promoted team hosts an established mid-table side, you often get a cagey affair. The promoted team sits deep, the visitors lack the quality to break them down consistently, and neither side wants to take risks. These matches frequently end 0-0 or 1-0.

Mid-Table vs Mid-Table

Matches between 8th and 14th place sides in the second half of the season are prime 0-0 territory. Neither team has much to play for, motivation drops, and managers are often cautious. The intensity simply is not there.

Fixtures With Tactical Stalemate History

Some head-to-head records show a pattern. Certain teams just cancel each other out. Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Burnley vs Brighton, Brentford vs Nottingham Forest - these types of matchups between well-organised, defensively sound mid-table sides tend to produce more goalless draws than the league average.

Early Season Matches

The first three or four gameweeks of a season produce more 0-0 results than the average. Teams have not gelled yet, new signings are being integrated, and managers tend to prioritise defensive structure before opening up.

The Clean Sheet Connection

A goalless draw requires both teams to keep a clean sheet. So if you want to predict 0-0, you need to identify matches where both defences are in good form.

Here is a simple checklist:

Has either team kept a clean sheet in their last two matches?
Are both teams in the bottom half of the league for goals scored per game?
Is the away team likely to set up defensively?
Is the match between two teams with low xG (expected goals) averages?

If you are answering yes to three or four of those questions, you have got a genuine 0-0 candidate. Understanding expected goals (xG) helps enormously here because it separates genuine defensive quality from lucky results.

Defensive Setups That Produce Goalless Draws

Tactics matter. Some formations and styles are far more likely to lead to low-scoring matches:

Two Banks of Four

Teams that play with a flat back four and a compact midfield four are the hardest to break down. When both teams do this, the space in the final third shrinks dramatically. Counter-attacks become the only real attacking outlet, and those are inherently low-percentage.

Five at the Back

Three centre-backs plus two wing-backs creates numerical superiority in defence. When a team playing five at the back faces another organised side, chances dry up quickly. Look for managers who switch to this system specifically for away fixtures.

Low Block Plus Long Ball

Some sides defend deep and then launch long balls forward. This approach sacrifices sustained pressure for security at the back. It rarely produces goals at either end, particularly when the opposition is also cautious.

When NOT to Predict a 0-0

Knowing when to avoid the 0-0 is just as important as knowing when to pick it. Here are the clearest warning signs:

One team has scored in every home game this season
The fixture historically produces goals (think Liverpool vs Leeds or Spurs vs Arsenal)
One team is fighting relegation and the other is comfortable - desperation creates goals
There is heavy rain or a waterlogged pitch - these conditions actually increase goals because defenders make more mistakes
A Big Six side is hosting a bottom-half team at home

For more on what happens when the top teams play, check our guide on what to expect from the Big Six. Those matches almost never end 0-0 at home.

A Practical 0-0 Strategy for Your Predictions

Here is a straightforward approach you can apply each gameweek:

Step 1: Scan the fixture list. Identify matches between two teams ranked 8th-18th where neither side is on a hot streak.

Step 2: Check defensive form. Look at clean sheets kept in the last five matches for both teams. If both have kept at least two, that is a good sign.

Step 3: Check the attacking form. If both teams are averaging under 1.2 goals per game over their last six, the 0-0 becomes a serious option. The form table is your best friend here.

Step 4: Consider the context. Is there anything riding on this match? Derbies, relegation battles, and title races rarely produce goalless draws. Mid-season, low-stakes fixtures between similar-quality sides are your best bet.

Step 5: Limit yourself. Do not predict more than one or two 0-0 results per gameweek. Even if three matches look like candidates, the probability of all three ending goalless is tiny. Pick your strongest one or two and move on.

The Points Maths

On ScoreBadger, an exact score prediction earns you 3 points. A correct result (predicting a draw when the match draws) earns 1 point. So if you predict 0-0 and the match ends 1-1, you still pick up a point for getting the draw right.

This is important. Predicting 0-0 does not mean you are gambling everything on a goalless match. Any draw gets you something. The 0-0 is your primary target, but you are covered if a few goals sneak in.

Compare that to predicting something like 3-2, where a wrong scoreline on a non-draw gives you nothing. The 0-0 is actually a lower-risk prediction than people realise. We explored this in detail in our guide to picking the right scoreline.

Tracking Your 0-0 Success Rate

If you start including goalless draws in your predictions, track how often you get them right. Over a full season, a good 0-0 predictor might hit 15-20% accuracy on their selected matches - which sounds low until you remember that the base rate for any exact score is well under 10%. Staying consistent across the season is what separates strong predictors from the rest.

Keep a simple record: which matches you predicted 0-0, what actually happened, and what your reasoning was. After ten gameweeks, review it. You will quickly learn which types of fixtures you read well and which ones fooled you.

The Bottom Line

The 0-0 is the most underused prediction in football. It happens more often than people think, it is backed up by clear statistical signals, and it carries lower risk than most exotic scorelines because any draw result still earns you a point.

You do not need to predict a goalless draw every week. But if you are ignoring it entirely, you are missing one of the simplest edges available to you. Start with one 0-0 per gameweek in the right fixture, track your results, and adjust from there.

Keep reading

Still building your prediction strategy? Read When to Predict a Draw (and When to Avoid It) for the broader picture on draw predictions, or check out Why Low-Scoring Games Are Easier to Predict for more on why fewer goals means more accurate forecasts. And if you want to sharpen your data skills, our Expected Goals (xG) Explained guide is a great next step.

Clean Sheets and Goalless Draws: When to Predict a 0-0