Draws are the most under-predicted result in football. Roughly one in four Premier League matches ends level, but if you look at the average predictor's gameweek submissions, they will have predicted a draw in maybe one or two out of ten matches. That gap between reality and prediction is where points are hiding.

The problem is psychological. Predicting a draw feels like a cop-out. It feels like you are saying you do not know what will happen. But in reality, predicting a draw is often the smartest and most informed choice you can make.

The draw numbers

Across the Premier League era, draws account for roughly 25-27% of all results. That is consistent season after season. Some years it dips to 23%, some years it pushes towards 28%, but it always hovers around a quarter.

Within those draws, the split is roughly:

1-1 - the most common draw, making up about 40% of all drawn matches
0-0 - the second most common, around 25% of draws
2-2 - roughly 20% of draws
3-3 and above - rare, about 5% of draws combined

So when you predict a draw, 1-1 should be your default. It is by far the most likely drawn scoreline, and it lines up with what we know about the most common Premier League scores overall.

When draws are most likely

Evenly matched mid-table sides

This is the classic draw scenario. Two teams sitting between 8th and 15th, similar form, similar quality. Neither is good enough to dominate the other, and neither is bad enough to collapse. These matches regularly finish 1-1 or 0-0.

When you see a fixture like Bournemouth vs Brentford or Brighton vs Wolves, and neither team is in particularly good or bad form, a draw is probably the smartest prediction you can make.

Low-confidence away favourites

This is a situation most predictors get wrong. A top-half team travelling to a mid-table side at home. The away team might be slightly better on paper, but home advantage tilts the balance.

These matches are close to 50/50, and when a match is genuinely 50/50, a draw is the most efficient prediction. You will be wrong a lot, but you will also be right more often than the people who confidently picked one side.

End of season dead rubbers

When neither team has anything to play for - safe from relegation, out of European contention - the intensity drops. Players are thinking about holidays, managers are rotating squads, and the result matters to nobody except the fans who paid for a ticket.

These matches produce more draws than the season average because neither side has the motivation to push for a win.

Both teams in poor defensive form

Counterintuitively, two leaky defences can produce a draw. When both teams are conceding regularly, the match often turns into an open, back-and-forth affair where neither side can hold a lead. 2-2 becomes a realistic shout in these situations.

When to avoid predicting a draw

Clear quality gaps

When there is an obvious mismatch - league leaders at home against the bottom side - a draw is unlikely. The better team almost always has enough to win. Yes, upsets happen, but backing a draw in a one-sided fixture is burning a prediction.

Teams on extreme runs

A team that has won five in a row at home has momentum, confidence, and a crowd that expects them to win. Predicting a draw here is fighting against a genuine trend. Similarly, a team that has lost their last six away games is unlikely to suddenly scrape a point.

Check the form table before making this call. If one team is on a clear run in one direction, the draw becomes less likely.

Derbies and rivalry matches

This might seem counterintuitive, because derbies can be tight and cagey. But the data actually shows that local derbies produce slightly fewer draws than the average Premier League match. The emotional intensity means one team usually finds a way to win.

The big six head-to-head patterns do show more draws than average, but that is specifically between top teams. When it is a local rivalry like Everton vs Liverpool or Arsenal vs Spurs, the draw rate drops.

Teams chasing something specific

A team fighting relegation in the final weeks of the season does not want a draw. They need wins. A team pushing for a Champions League spot on the last day needs three points, not one. When the stakes are high and a draw does not help either team, the match tends to produce a winner.

How many draws per gameweek?

If roughly 25% of matches end in draws, then in a 10-match gameweek, you should expect 2 to 3 draws on average. Some weeks will have none. Some will have five. But over the course of a season, averaging 2 to 3 draws per round will be close to reality.

A practical rule: look at your 10 predictions for the gameweek. If you have fewer than 2 draws, you are probably under-predicting them. If you have more than 4, you are probably overdoing it.

The sweet spot for most predictors is 2 or 3 draws, placed on the fixtures where neither team has a clear edge.

Draws and the scoring system

In ScoreBadger's scoring system, a draw prediction works the same as any other. You get 3 points for the exact score and 1 point for the correct result. But there is a subtle advantage to draw predictions.

When you predict a draw and it finishes as a draw but with a different score, you still get the result point. And because most draws cluster around 1-1 and 0-0, your chances of hitting the exact score are decent. If you predict 1-1 and it finishes 0-0, you get 1 point. If someone else predicted 2-1 and it finishes 0-0, they get nothing.

This connects to the wider principle that low-scoring predictions are easier to get right. When you predict a 1-1 draw, you are playing the probabilities.

Making draws work for you

The adjustment most predictors need to make is simple: predict more draws. Not on every match - that would be lazy. But on the fixtures where you genuinely cannot separate the two teams, stop forcing a winner and go with the draw.

Default to 1-1 for tight, evenly-matched fixtures
Use 0-0 when both defences are solid and the teams are cautious
Consider 2-2 when both teams are in good attacking form but leaky at the back
Aim for 2-3 draws per gameweek as a baseline
Only avoid the draw when there is a clear reason one team should win

Over a full season, this single adjustment - predicting more draws - can be worth 20 to 30 extra points. That is often the difference between mid-table and a podium finish in your league.

Put this strategy into action on the Premier League prediction game and see how it changes your results.

Keep reading

Understand the full picture with our guide to the most common Premier League scores. Draws are just one piece of the puzzle.

Want to know when home advantage overrides the draw? Read about how venue shapes predictions and when to back the home side.

Building a long-term approach? Our guide to staying consistent across a full season will help you turn these tactics into results.

When to Predict a Draw (and When to Avoid It)