The Top 10 Most Unpredictable Premier League Fixtures
Some fixtures are straightforward. When the league leaders host a newly promoted side, you can pick a home win with reasonable confidence. But certain Premier League matchups produce chaos with alarming regularity. The form book goes out the window, league position becomes irrelevant, and anything can happen. If you are playing on ScoreBadger or any other prediction game, these are the fixtures that will make or break your gameweek.
We have looked at historical results, scoreline variance, and the frequency of upset results to compile a list of the ten Premier League fixtures that most consistently defy expectations. If you can figure out even a slight edge in these matches, you will gain ground on everyone else in your league.
10. Newcastle vs Tottenham
On paper, this should be a reasonably predictable fixture. Two established clubs, usually separated by a few league places, with clear tactical identities. In practice, this match produces chaos. Since Newcastle's return to the top flight, this fixture has seen scorelines ranging from 6-1 to 1-0, with very little in between.
The issue is that both teams tend to play open, attacking football, which creates a volatile mix. When two sides that both want to play on the front foot meet, the result swings on individual moments - a counter-attack here, a defensive error there. For predictors, the best approach is to expect goals. A 2-2 or 2-1 is more likely than a cagey 0-0.
9. Everton vs Liverpool
Merseyside derbies are inherently unpredictable because form goes out the window. We covered this in our piece on predicting local rivalries, but Everton vs Liverpool deserves its own mention. Liverpool might be ten places higher in the table and it will not matter. The atmosphere at Goodison Park (or its successor) creates an intensity that distorts normal patterns.
Everton have pulled off results against Liverpool in seasons where they have been otherwise dreadful. The emotional investment from both sets of fans lifts the underdog and unsettles the favourite. If Liverpool are heavy favourites, consider a narrower margin than you would normally predict. A 1-0 or 1-1 is more likely than the 3-0 the league table might suggest.
