World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: Five Teams Worth Backing

Every World Cup has a team that nobody picked before the tournament that ends up two matches deep into the knockouts. In 2002 it was South Korea. In 2014 it was Costa Rica. In 2018 it was Croatia, which felt like an underdog and ended up in the final. In 2022 it was Morocco, who went all the way to the semis.

If you are predicting in our World Cup game, picking which dark horse is going to do the deep run this time is worth real points. Even being right about the round-of-16 winner against a fancied opponent is a 3-pointer most of your league misses. Here are five teams whose path looks better than the noise around them suggests.

Morocco: the proven outsider

Morocco are the defending semi-finalists, which makes them an unusual entry on a dark-horses list. The reason they are here is that the public has not really priced in how good they are. Their 2022 run looked like one of those tournaments where everything goes right. Their results since suggest it was not.

Morocco have lost twice in 23 competitive matches across the last two years. Their organisation under Walid Regragui is the best of any non-elite side at the tournament. Achraf Hakimi, Sofyan Amrabat, En-Nesyri, Brahim Díaz: this is not a one-tournament-wonder squad.

Predictions: 1-0 to Morocco against any group-stage opponent ranked outside the top 15 in FIFA rankings. 1-1 or 1-0 in any knockout against a top-eight side. Morocco get to the quarters more often than not. They are the smartest first-tier dark horse pick.

Portugal: the post-Ronaldo identity

Portugal arrive without Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time in two decades. The squad is younger, more balanced, and crucially, no longer organised around accommodating a fading superstar. Bruno Fernandes is the senior figure. Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão lead the attack. Vitinha runs the midfield.

The case for Portugal is that the talent has always been close to elite and the matches were lost to overreliance on one player. With that constraint removed, the team plays closer to its potential. They were the smartest side in their qualifying group.

Predictions: 2-0 or 2-1 in group matches. They are good enough to top their group cleanly. In the knockouts, 1-0 or 2-1 against any opponent outside the top eight. A quarter-final exit is the floor. A semi-final is the upside.

Netherlands: a quiet improvement

The Dutch are the contender people forget about. They were a 2022 quarter-finalist that lost to the eventual winners on penalties. They lost the Euro 2024 semi-final the same way. The senior squad is more or less intact: Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons.

Ronald Koeman's setup is pragmatic in a way that suits tournament football. They will not bury an opponent but they will also not lose 2-0. They draw matches they probably should win and then win the knockout match nobody expected them to.

Predictions: 2-1 or 1-1 in any tight group match. 1-0 or 1-1 in knockouts. The Netherlands are the team in the bracket most likely to end up in a quarter-final everyone expected someone else to be in.

Uruguay: the wild card

Uruguay are the team where the squad on paper is better than their tournament results have been for the last three cycles. Marcelo Bielsa took over in 2023 and has produced exactly the kind of high-intensity, transition-heavy team his reputation suggests.

Federico Valverde and Manuel Ugarte in midfield, Darwin Núñez and Maximiliano Araújo up front, Ronald Araújo and José María Giménez at the back. This is a quarter-final-or-better squad organised by a manager whose tournament record varies wildly.

Predictions: Uruguay matches will be more chaotic than most. 2-1 and 2-2 are the most common scorelines. They will lose a 3-2 group match they should have won and then beat a top-eight side 2-1 in the knockouts. Predict accordingly: chaos, not control.

Senegal: the African champions in waiting

Senegal won the African Cup of Nations in 2022 and reached the round of 16 in Qatar that year before losing to England. The squad has continued to mature. Sadio Mané remains the senior name, Ismaïla Sarr and Boulaye Dia carry significant attacking load, Édouard Mendy gives them a top-class keeper. Aliou Cissé's organisation is the best of any African side at the tournament.

Senegal's path to the knockouts is straightforward in most plausible group draws. From there, they have the squad to beat any non-elite side. A quarter-final run is realistic.

Predictions: 1-0 and 2-1 are their scorelines. They are not a 3-1 side. They grind. Their knockout matches will be tight and probably late-decided.

How to use this list

Picking a dark horse means making a bet in two stages. First, the team gets out of their group. Second, they win at least one knockout. Most of the value in your prediction league comes from the second stage: betting against a fancied opponent in the round of 32 or round of 16 when most of your league has not.

• Round of 32. Pick the dark horse to win or draw against a clearly higher-ranked opponent in their first knockout. If they win, you score 3 (or get the correct result if you nailed the scoreline).
• Round of 16 and beyond. Backing a dark horse to win against a top-eight side is where the points come from. Your league will be split, and being on the right side of the split is the difference between mid-table and the top three.

For the broader bracket thinking, the knockout strategy guide walks through the round-by-round logic. The tournament-winner bonus pick frames the 10-point bonus pick if you want to go all-in on a dark horse for the upside variance.

The honest caveat

Most dark horses fall in the round of 32. The whole appeal is that they are second-tier teams, and most of them lose their first knockout match by a goal. Your job is not to back five dark horses. It is to pick the one whose path actually opens up.

Read the bracket the moment matchday three of the groups finishes. The dark horse whose round-of-32 draw is the kindest is the one to back for the deep run. Adjust your knockout predictions accordingly.

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Keep reading

If you want the contender-tier overview, the Argentina, France and Spain prediction guides cover the top of the tree. For the bracket-by-bracket logic, knockout strategy and group-stage strategy are the foundation pieces.