World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: Five Teams Worth Backing

Every World Cup has a team that nobody picked before the tournament that ends up two matches deep into the knockouts. In 2002 it was South Korea. In 2014 it was Costa Rica. In 2018 it was Croatia, which felt like an underdog and ended up in the final. In 2022 it was Morocco, who went all the way to the semis.

If you are predicting in our World Cup game, picking which dark horse is going to do the deep run this time is worth real points. Even being right about the round-of-16 winner against a fancied opponent is a 3-pointer most of your league misses. Here are five teams whose path looks better than the noise around them suggests.

Morocco: the proven outsider

Morocco are the defending semi-finalists, which makes them an unusual entry on a dark-horses list. The reason they are here is that the public has not really priced in how good they are. Their 2022 run looked like one of those tournaments where everything goes right. Their results since suggest it was not.

Morocco have lost twice in 23 competitive matches across the last two years. Their organisation under Walid Regragui is the best of any non-elite side at the tournament. Achraf Hakimi, Sofyan Amrabat, En-Nesyri, Brahim Díaz: this is not a one-tournament-wonder squad.

Predictions: 1-0 to Morocco against any group-stage opponent ranked outside the top 15 in FIFA rankings. 1-1 or 1-0 in any knockout against a top-eight side. Morocco get to the quarters more often than not. They are the smartest first-tier dark horse pick.

Portugal: the post-Ronaldo identity

Portugal arrive without Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time in two decades. The squad is younger, more balanced, and crucially, no longer organised around accommodating a fading superstar. Bruno Fernandes is the senior figure. Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão lead the attack. Vitinha runs the midfield.

The case for Portugal is that the talent has always been close to elite and the matches were lost to overreliance on one player. With that constraint removed, the team plays closer to its potential. They were the smartest side in their qualifying group.

Predictions: 2-0 or 2-1 in group matches. They are good enough to top their group cleanly. In the knockouts, 1-0 or 2-1 against any opponent outside the top eight. A quarter-final exit is the floor. A semi-final is the upside.