World Cup 2026 Knockout Strategy: Predicting the Bracket From Round of 32 to the Final

The group stage rewards consistency. The knockout stage rewards picking the right scoreline for one match, in one moment, with no second chances. The way you predict has to change.

Our World Cup prediction game scores knockout matches the same way as group matches: 3 points for an exact scoreline, 1 for the correct result. But the underlying matches behave very differently once we are past the group stage. Here is how to adjust.

The 90-minute scoring rule

This is the most important thing to understand and the part most players miss. Knockout predictions score on the result after 90 minutes only. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count.

That means if you predict 1-1 in a match that ends 1-1 after 90 minutes and then goes to extra time, you score 3 points for the exact draw scoreline. The fact that one side wins on penalties does not matter for your prediction. The same logic applies if extra-time goals change the final scoreline. Your prediction is locked to the 90-minute state.

Why does this matter? Because at the World Cup roughly 30% of knockout ties go to extra time, and a chunk of those go all the way to penalties. If you instinctively predict a side to win because you think they will progress, you will routinely lose points to draws that you would have got right by predicting more conservatively.

The practical implication

Predict for the 90-minute scoreline you actually expect. Do not anchor on who you think will win the tie. If your honest read is that the match is a coin flip, predict 1-1 or 0-0, take the 3 points when it goes to extra time, and shrug when one side wins it 2-1 in the 117th minute.

Round of 32: the new format meets reality

The 48-team format produces a Round of 32, which is brand new to World Cup football. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams make 32 sides. That sounds like a lot of mismatches on paper, but the third-placed qualifiers are usually solid, not soft.

Expect closer matches than the bracket suggests:

• Top seeds versus third-placed teams. The mismatches are smaller than they look. A third-placed team that got through with four points still won at least one group match. Predict cautiously, especially in the opening 90 minutes. 2-0 to a favourite is more realistic than 3-0.