How to Track Your Prediction Accuracy Over Time
Most prediction league players submit their scores each week, check the results, and move on. They might glance at the leaderboard, feel good or bad about their position, and start thinking about the next round. What they rarely do is look back at their predictions over time to spot patterns, weaknesses, and areas for improvement.
That is a missed opportunity. Tracking your prediction accuracy is the fastest way to get better, and it does not take much effort once you know what to look for. If you have already read how to stay consistent over a full season, this is the natural next step.
The Three Metrics That Matter
You do not need a spreadsheet full of advanced statistics. Three simple metrics will tell you almost everything about your prediction performance:
1. Exact Score Percentage
This is the percentage of matches where you predicted the exact final score. In most prediction leagues, an exact score is worth the maximum points (typically 3 points on ScoreBadger). A good exact score percentage in the Premier League is anywhere between 8% and 15%. If you are consistently above 10%, you are doing well. Below 5%, and you might be picking too many unusual scorelines.
2. Correct Result Percentage
This measures how often you got the right outcome - home win, draw, or away win - regardless of the exact score. A solid result percentage sits around 45-55%. If you are below 40%, there is a systematic issue with how you are reading matches. If you are above 55%, you have a genuine edge. This is where the bulk of your points come from, since correct results earn 1 point each.
3. Points Per Gameweek
Your average points per gameweek is the simplest overall performance measure. Track this over time and you will see trends - are you improving as the season goes on? Do you score more in certain months? Do you have a pattern of strong starts and weak finishes, or vice versa?
Spotting Patterns in Your Predictions
Once you have your basic metrics, dig into the patterns. Here are the most common things people discover when they look at their data:
You over-predict home wins.
