The North London Derby: A Predictor's Guide

The North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham is one of the most open fixtures in the Premier League, with scorelines like 2-1, 2-2, and 1-1 appearing far more often than tight, low-scoring affairs. For predictors, the trick is leaning into that openness rather than reaching for a safe 1-0.

If you are putting picks in for the next round on ScoreBadger, this is one of the matches where instinct and pattern matter as much as form. Here is how to think about it.

Why North London Derbies Tend to Be Open

Arsenal and Tottenham have spent most of the last decade as attack-first sides. Both teams build through fast transitions, both have invested heavily in forwards and creative midfielders, and both managers, regardless of who has been in the dugout, have leaned towards possession and pressing rather than parking the bus. When two attacking teams meet, you tend to get goals.

Add the emotion of a derby and the picture gets clearer. Defenders take risks they would not take in a normal league match. Midfielders push higher up the pitch. Strikers chase lost causes. The result is more shots, more chances, and more goals on average than a typical Premier League fixture.

This is part of a broader pattern we cover in our piece on derby day predictions. Local rivalries inflate intensity, and intensity tends to produce more goals than form alone would suggest.

Common Scorelines to Lean Towards

Looking across recent seasons, a few scorelines come up repeatedly in this fixture:

• 2-1 in either direction is one of the most common outcomes
• 2-2 appears more often than the league average for this matchup
• 1-1 is the safety net pick when you cannot separate the two sides
• 3-1 and 3-2 are not unusual when one side has the better form
• 0-0 and 1-0 are far rarer than in most other Premier League matches

If you find yourself drifting towards a 1-0, ask whether the data really supports it or whether you are just being cautious. Our guide on the myth of the safe prediction covers why low-scoring picks in open fixtures often score worse than slightly braver ones.