How to Predict After a Manager Has Just Been Sacked

**TL;DR: **When a manager is sacked, the next match usually sees a short-term lift for the players. The so-called new-manager bounce is real but small - a temporary intensity boost rather than a tactical revolution. Predictors should expect a slightly improved performance in the first one or two games, then a return towards the team's underlying quality.

Few mid-season events shake a fixture week as much as a managerial sacking. The squad is jolted out of its routine, the press is full of noise, and bookmakers and fans alike start guessing what the next match will look like. For predictors, this is a moment where most people overreact. The trick is to know how big the bounce really is and where it usually shows up.

The New-Manager Bounce: Real but Modest

There's a long-running pattern across European leagues: teams tend to perform marginally better in the first match or two after a sacking. It's usually not a tactical transformation - the new manager has had days, not weeks, to drill new ideas - but rather a short surge in intensity, fresh attitudes, and players auditioning for places. We covered the underlying dynamic in the new manager bounce in predictions.

The bounce is real in the data, but it's smaller than the media attention suggests. Across many sackings, the average lift is roughly half a goal of expected performance over the first one or two matches, before reverting to the squad's underlying quality.

Caretaker vs Permanent Appointment

The kind of replacement matters. A caretaker - usually an internal coach taking the team for a match or two while the club searches - tends to produce a bigger bounce than a permanent appointment. The reason is that a caretaker keeps tactics simple, lifts morale, and lets the players play. A new permanent manager often introduces tactical changes that take time to bed in.

• Caretaker first match: small but reliable performance lift
• Permanent appointment first match: variable - depends on identity of manager
• Big-name appointment: media boost can mask short-term tactical disruption
• First training-week-influenced match (after international break): more meaningful tactical signal

If a club hires a high-profile name midweek and plays on the weekend, expect uncertainty. The team might play with intensity but tactical confusion. We talked about reading team news and lineup signals in .