The Manchester Derby: How to Pick the Right Scoreline

The Manchester Derby has shifted from one of the most balanced fixtures in English football to one of the most lopsided over the last decade, with City typically dominating possession, shots, and goals. Predictors who lean on old assumptions about an evenly matched derby tend to lose points; the data favours bold scorelines for City and cautious ones for United away from home.

If you are weighing up your pick on ScoreBadger, here is the framework that travels well across this fixture.

How the Last Decade Has Played Out

Across the last ten seasons or so, City have won the bulk of meetings between the two clubs. The wins have not been narrow, either. Three- and four-goal margins have appeared more often than they used to, and the days of regular 1-1 draws are largely behind this fixture. United have nicked memorable wins along the way, but the underlying pattern has been clear.

That dominance shows up in the goals data. The fixture averages well above the league-wide rate of around 2.7 to 2.8 goals per game, with both ends of the pitch typically active. Trying to predict a 1-0 in either direction has become much harder than it used to be.

Why City Have Pulled Ahead

The reasons are structural rather than tactical, which is why no single manager change has flipped the dynamic. City have had multi-season patterns of:

• Higher average possession across the fixture
• More shots on target per 90
• A deeper attacking squad and more rotation options
• A clearer pressing structure that suffocates United's build-up
• Stronger underlying expected goals numbers across the season

This is the kind of structural advantage we explore in our piece on what to expect from top teams. When one side has a clear edge in shot quality and possession, the goals tend to follow eventually.

Fixture-Specific Quirks

A few oddities of this fixture are worth holding onto when you predict it. Manchester Derbies often see early goals, which then snowball. They produce more red cards than the league average. They are also more likely to feature one team racing into a multi-goal lead and the other side either staging a comeback or capitulating, with relatively few games staying balanced throughout.