Are Home Wins More Common Than Away Wins?

TL;DR: Yes - in the Premier League, around 45% of matches are home wins, around 28% are away wins, and the remaining roughly 27% are draws. Home advantage is real, persistent, and worth around 0.3 to 0.4 goals per match on average, though it has been gradually shrinking over the past decade.

If you have ever wondered whether to favour the home side as a default in your predictions, the data says yes - within reason. The home team wins materially more often than the away team across virtually every league, every season, and every era of football. Here is what the numbers look like and why.

The Premier League Breakdown

The long-run averages across modern Premier League seasons typically land in this range:

• Home wins: around 45% of matches
• Away wins: around 28% of matches
• Draws: around 27% of matches
• Average home advantage: roughly 0.3 to 0.4 goals per match
• Average home points per match: typically around 1.6 versus 1.1 away

These numbers are remarkably stable across seasons. There is some variance year to year, but the basic shape - home wins comfortably ahead of away wins - holds in essentially every Premier League season since the league formed. We covered this in detail in our breakdown of how home advantage shapes score predictions, and in our piece on how venue shapes results.

Why Home Advantage Exists

There is no single reason home teams win more. It is a combination of small factors that compound:

• Crowd support - vocal home support genuinely affects player and referee behaviour
• Travel fatigue - away teams arrive after journeys and unfamiliar hotels
• Pitch familiarity - knowing the dimensions, surface, and quirks of your own ground
• No need to acclimatise - kit, dressing room, warm-up routines are normal
• Tactical comfort - home teams typically take the initiative and force the away side to react
• Refereeing bias - subtle and unintentional, but documented in research on home crowds

The 'crowd effect' on referees is one of the most studied aspects of home advantage. Researchers have shown that referees award marginally more favourable decisions to home teams, particularly in tight calls on fouls and added time. This is not deliberate cheating - it appears to be a subconscious response to crowd noise and pressure.