The Christmas Schedule: More Matches, More Points, More Chaos
Every year, while the rest of Europe shuts down for a winter break, the Premier League does the exact opposite. Between mid-December and early January, teams play roughly twice as many matches as they do in any other three-week stretch. For the players, it is gruelling. For managers, it is a tactical headache. For prediction game players on ScoreBadger, it is absolute gold.
More matches means more predictions, more points available, and more opportunities to make up ground on your league rivals. But it also means more chaos, more upsets, and more results that nobody saw coming. The Christmas schedule is where prediction league seasons are won and lost.
Why the Festive Period Produces Upsets
We have written specifically about the Boxing Day effect and fixture congestion before, but it is worth revisiting why this period is so unpredictable. The short version: tired players make mistakes, and mistakes produce unexpected results.
Teams playing three matches in seven days cannot field their strongest lineup for all three. Managers rotate. Key players get rested. Squad depth becomes the most important factor in the league, and teams with thin squads suddenly look vulnerable against opponents they would normally handle comfortably.
The numbers bear this out. Over the last decade, home win percentage drops by roughly 5% during the festive period compared to the rest of the season. Draw frequency increases. Lower-table teams pick up a disproportionate number of points. The gap between the best and worst narrows, and the form table becomes unreliable.
Squad Depth Becomes Everything
During a normal week, most Premier League managers rely on their best eleven. The Christmas schedule forces them to think differently. A squad that looked perfectly adequate in October suddenly feels paper-thin in December when injuries pile up and fatigue sets in.
For your predictions, this means paying close attention to squad sizes and the quality of backup options. Teams with genuine depth - where the second-choice right-back is still a solid Premier League player - cope much better than teams where the drop-off from first choice to second choice is dramatic.
- Check squad depth before the festive period starts - which teams have viable rotation options?
