Building a Prediction Strategy From Scratch
If you have been playing prediction games for a while and your results are inconsistent - good one week, terrible the next - the problem is probably not your football knowledge. It is the lack of a consistent strategy. Having a system to follow each week removes the guesswork, reduces emotional decision-making, and produces better results over time.
This guide walks you through building a prediction strategy from scratch. No previous experience required. By the end, you will have a repeatable process that takes 20-30 minutes per gameweek and puts you in a strong position to compete in your prediction league.
Step 1: Understand Your Scoring System
Before you build a strategy, you need to understand what you are optimising for. In ScoreBadger's scoring system, you get 3 points for an exact score and 1 point for the correct result. This means getting the result right is three times easier than getting the exact score, but the exact score is worth three times as much.
The implication: your strategy should focus first on getting the result right (home win, draw, or away win), and then on picking the most likely exact score within that result. If you consistently get the result right, you will accumulate a steady stream of 1-point scores. The occasional exact score prediction is a bonus that pushes you up the table.
Step 2: Classify Each Match
Before making any predictions, go through the fixture list and classify each match into one of four categories:
- Strong home win: the home team is clearly better and should win comfortably (e.g., top-four team vs relegation candidate)
- Competitive home advantage: the home team is slightly favoured but it could go either way (e.g., mid-table team vs similar opponent)
- Likely draw: two evenly matched teams, or a high-profile match where neither can afford to lose
- Away win likely: the away team is stronger, often a big club travelling to a weaker side
This classification does not require statistics. It requires basic knowledge of the Premier League table, recent form, and home advantage patterns. If you are unsure about a match, default to competitive home advantage - the home team wins roughly 46% of Premier League matches, making it the safest default.
